The AI capex cycle: who actually gets paid?
We map $600B of data-center spending across chips, power, cooling and real estate, and rank the winners by how much of each dollar they keep.
Our view
Big Tech will spend around $600 billion on data centers next year, more than the entire US oil and gas industry invests in a year. The question for investors is no longer whether the money gets spent, but who keeps it.
Following the dollar
We split each dollar of AI data-center spending into five buckets: chips, networking, power and cooling, buildings, and everything else. Chips still take the largest share, but power is the fastest-growing slice.
Where each $1 of AI capex goes
The technical picture
Semiconductor stocks are pausing after a strong run. The sector index is holding above its 50-day average, with clear support where buyers stepped in during August.
NVDA · daily chart with key levels
Valuation: what’s priced in
Not every AI beneficiary is expensive. Utilities and data-center landlords trade at a discount to chipmakers despite faster growth in contracted revenue.
| Company | Fwd P/E | EPS growth | PEG | Our view |
|---|
Scenarios
“The winners of the next phase are the companies that sell the picks and the shovels, and the power to run them.”
This analysis is sample content for a design preview. It is not investment advice.